Fatih Mutlu, Abdulbari Bener, Afnan Eliyan, Hamsa Delghan, Enas Nofal, Luma Shalabi and Nada Wadi
Background: The Middle East region is predicted to have one of the highest prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in the world. This is the first study in the region to forecast the burden of diabetes.
Aim: This study aims to estimate the projected prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM] among adults in Qatar over the period 2012 to 2025 using national data, and to quantify the potential effect of a suggested preventive intervention program.
Design: It is an observational cohort study.
Setting: The survey was based on registry at the Hamad General Hospital and Primary Health Care (PHC) centers in the State of Qatar.
Subjects: This study consisted of patients above 25 years of age with diagnosed diabetes mellitus registered at Hamad General Hospital and Primary Health Care (PHC) centers during January 2006 to December 2012.
Methods: We developed a dynamic model in which actual incidence, prevalence, and life expectancy data are used and alternative assumptions about future trends in these parameters can be incorporated. Linear regression model has been performed to forecast the burden of diabetes in oil - rich country.
Result: According to the dynamic model, a 10% increased in the number of diabetic patients in the State of Qatar from 37000 in 2006 to 122,000 in 2012 (about 1% annually). The annual diabetes incidence rate was higher in women than in men during a period between 2006 to 2012 years. The static model forecasted as 10% increase over 10 years. The relative increase in prevalence of diabetes and number of diabetic people is higher in women than in men (16.6%; 17.5% and 18.4% in men vs. 22.6%; 23.8% and 25.1% in women). Most of the increase in prevalence of diabetes is projected to occur in younger age groups where it is estimated to increase among age groups of 50-59 years and above 60 years, respectively.
Conclusion: The burden of diabetes in Qatar is markedly larger than proposed by IDF estimations- suggesting that Qatar would be one of the top ten countries worldwide in diabetes prevalence. Family history of diabetes, consanguinity marriages’, hereditary gene-environment interactions, poor nutrition in utero and in early life plus over nutrition in later life may also contribute to the current diabetes epidemic in Qatari’s Arab populations. In planning future health care, monitoring of trends in incidence, prevalence, remission, and mortality or life expectancy is a necessary prerequisite.